2026大类资产怎么配？这场策略会给出答案

Group 1 - The theme of the CITIC Futures 2026 Annual Strategy Conference is "Sailing Forward Amidst Waves," focusing on global economic changes, macro policy orientation, and asset allocation [1] - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong highlighted the dual challenges of restructuring global order and trade rules while also embracing a new wave of technological revolution and green transformation [1] - The conference emphasized the importance of seizing historical opportunities during the transitional phase of the economy, particularly as China enters the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities' Chief Macro Analyst Cui Rong and his team predict a temporary period of clarity in the global macro environment for 2026, with reduced uncertainties in geopolitics, fiscal, and monetary policies [2] - They expect a moderate acceleration in economic growth in the US, Europe, and Japan, alongside a return of inflation concerns to a "comfortable zone" [2] - The anticipated global interest rate cuts in 2026 are expected to be less pronounced than in 2025, with a stronger US dollar in the first half of the year, leading to lower liquidity in global financial markets [2] Group 3 - CITIC Futures Research Institute Deputy Director Zeng Ning maintains an optimistic macro outlook for 2026, with a continued easing of global liquidity driven by the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2] - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 suggests a balanced approach, with an increased weight on commodities while being mindful of internal differentiation [2] - Precious metals are expected to remain a strong hedge against sovereign credit currency depreciation, while supply-constrained and demand-growing non-ferrous metals are also favored [3] Group 4 - The outlook for black construction materials indicates a stable demand-supply dynamic, with potential for long positions at relative valuation bottoms once global recovery becomes clearer [3] - Oil is projected to face significant inventory accumulation in 2026, with expectations of downward pressure on price levels, suggesting a cautious approach to long positions until supply dynamics stabilize [3]