美国高关税政策“反噬”？制造业工作岗位不增反降

Core Insights - The high tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration aimed to stimulate manufacturing jobs in the U.S., but has resulted in a contraction of blue-collar jobs instead of growth [1][4][6]. Employment Trends - Since April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost a total of 58,000 jobs, with manufacturing employment contracting for nine consecutive months [1][4]. - The overall spending and activity for new or expanded manufacturing facilities have declined over the past year, indicating weak capital expenditure intentions [2][4]. - Despite the contraction in manufacturing, there remains a resilient demand for skilled workers, highlighting a mismatch between available jobs and worker skills [4][5]. Manufacturing Activity - The S&P Global data shows that the U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 52.5 in October to 51.9 in November, with new orders dropping from 54.0 to 51.3 [5]. - There is a concerning dual pressure on manufacturers, with slowing new order growth and rising finished goods inventory, which could significantly slow production expansion in the coming months [5][6]. Tariff Impact - The implementation of high tariffs has not only failed to restore manufacturing jobs to historical levels but also requires tariffs to be doubled to achieve the Trump administration's trade deficit reduction goals [5][6]. - The annualized cost of shifting jobs from the service sector to manufacturing due to high tariffs exceeds $200,000 per position, ultimately borne by U.S. consumers [5][6]. Investment Climate - The current tariff policies may be hindering new factory investments, as increased costs for essential manufacturing inputs could suppress domestic investment in new facilities [6][7]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led companies to adopt a more cautious approach to expansion, particularly in blue-collar sectors [7].