Where Will Sirius XM Stock Be in 3 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Sirius XM Holdings has faced significant challenges over the past three years, with shares losing over two-thirds of their value, but there are potential signs for a turnaround in the coming years due to its low valuation and strong dividend yield [1][2]. Financial Performance - The stock has dropped 68% over the past three years, resulting in a total return decline of 64% when including quarterly distributions [2]. - Despite the decline in stock price, Sirius XM continues to generate substantial free cash flow, returning a portion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends [4]. Subscriber Trends - Subscriber numbers have gradually decreased since peaking in 2019, with a monthly churn rate within historical ranges, but the lack of new subscribers has been a concern [3]. - The company has not posted double-digit revenue growth in over a decade, and revenue has declined for three consecutive years [3]. Future Outlook - If subscriber counts continue to decline, Sirius XM may face further financial challenges, especially if key content creators do not renew contracts [6][9]. - There are potential positive factors for growth, such as increased in-office employment leading to more commuters, low gas prices, and new content that could attract subscribers [9]. - Analysts project a slight revenue increase to $8.6 billion by 2028, which is only 0.8% higher than current levels, while earnings per share are expected to rise by 11% [10]. Shareholder Dynamics - Berkshire Hathaway, owning over 37% of Sirius XM's shares, plays a significant role in the company's future; any decision by Buffett to sell could negatively impact the stock [10][11]. - The company is currently valued at less than 7 times next year's earnings, presenting a potential high-yielding turnaround opportunity if the subscriber base stabilizes [13].