迎峰度冬 环渤海动力煤价格持稳运行

Core Viewpoint - The current market for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has stabilized, with the price index remaining at 698 yuan per ton, reflecting a balance between supply constraints and demand limitations [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Some mining areas have completed their annual production targets and are actively reducing capacity, while environmental inspections limit production increases. However, major mines in key production areas continue stable operations to ensure supply [1]. - Increased coal imports have been noted, with coastal power plants ramping up their procurement, which has helped to fill domestic supply gaps and reduce upward pressure on prices in the domestic market [1]. Demand Analysis - The heating season in northern regions has commenced, leading to a slight increase in power plant operating rates. However, overall demand has not exceeded expectations, with inland power plants showing weaker daily consumption compared to last year [1]. - End-user procurement remains cautious, primarily relying on long-term contracts, and there is a low acceptance of high-priced market coal. Non-electric sectors such as construction and chemicals are maintaining demand-based purchasing strategies, resulting in overall procurement activity being lower than in previous periods [1]. Price Outlook - The combination of rising inventories, increased imports, and resistance from end-users is limiting the potential for price increases, leading to a high-level price correction. Nonetheless, the demand from heating needs and supply constraints are expected to support the price center [2]. - Future price movements will depend on temperature changes, the pace of inventory depletion at ports, and adjustments in import coal policies. If a cold winter leads to unexpectedly high demand, prices may rebound [2].