【环球财经】IMF警示土耳其“通胀回落但风险未除” 短周期改善难掩结构性挑战

Group 1 - The IMF projects Turkey's inflation to decrease to 33% by the end of 2025, down from nearly 50% at the end of 2024, aligning with the central bank's forecasts [1][2] - Turkey's inflation rate fell to 32.87% in October, but remains high, prompting the central bank to adjust its year-end inflation forecast from 25%-29% to 31%-33% [2] - The IMF emphasizes the need for Turkey to tighten fiscal and monetary policies further, including raising real policy rates and delaying interest rate cuts to ensure sustained inflation decline [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF acknowledges Turkey's fiscal consolidation efforts, projecting the budget deficit to decrease from 4.7% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2023, with a slight increase to 3.7% by 2026 [2] - Structural reforms are deemed essential for Turkey to achieve higher potential growth, with the IMF highlighting the importance of enhancing productivity and reducing external vulnerabilities [1][3] - The Turkish banking system remains robust, with adequate capital and liquidity levels, and the exit from the foreign exchange-protected deposit mechanism indicates a shift towards more market-oriented macroeconomic policies [3]