How Institutions Plan to Trade Bitcoin in 2026–2028 Halving Cycle

Core Insights - JPMorgan is shifting from traditional spot ETFs to complex Bitcoin-linked derivatives, indicating a new trading approach for Bitcoin amid the upcoming halving cycle [1] - The newly filed structured note linked to BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF promises significant returns but carries the risk of total principal loss [2][3] Summary by Sections Structured Note Details - The proposed note offers 16% fixed returns if IBIT reaches JPMorgan's price target by the end of 2026 and over 50% returns if the target is met by 2028 [3][6] - A critical risk is that if the ETF drops more than 30% at any point before maturity, investors could lose their entire principal [3][4] Market Dynamics - The transition from spot ETFs to derivatives reflects a broader trend among Wall Street institutions, focusing on contracts that depend on ETF performance rather than direct ownership of Bitcoin [4] - The structured note is categorized as high-yield/high-volatility, typically reserved for sophisticated clients, utilizing mechanisms like barriers and auto-call triggers [5] Risk and Return Mechanics - The note features a 1.5x upside, resembling a leveraged derivative payoff, with a 30% downside barrier that mirrors derivative-style risk protection [7]