美国关键制造资本货物新订单9月份大幅增长 强化Q3经济增速加快预期

Core Insights - The significant increase in new orders for key manufacturing capital goods in the U.S. in September strengthens expectations for accelerated economic growth in the third quarter [1][2] - The rise in core capital goods orders and equipment shipments indicates robust business investment and production activity [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturing Orders - Excluding aircraft, orders for business production equipment rose by 0.9% in September, continuing the upward trend from August's revised 0.9% increase, significantly surpassing market expectations of a 0.2% growth [1] - The report was delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown, highlighting the impact of government operations on economic reporting [1] Group 2: Equipment Shipments - Shipments of machinery and equipment also increased by 0.9% in September, reversing a slight decline in August, indicating a recovery in production capabilities [1] - The volatility in equipment orders this year is attributed to businesses adjusting to large-scale import tariffs implemented by the previous administration [1] Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - Economists expect continued strong performance in business equipment investment in the third quarter, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicting a 4.0% annualized GDP growth rate, up from 3.8% in the second quarter [2] - The broader durable goods sector saw a 0.5% increase in September, following a robust 3.0% growth in August, indicating sustained demand across various durable goods [2] Group 4: Aerospace Sector - Non-defense aircraft and parts orders fell by 6.1% in September; however, Boeing reported receiving 96 aircraft orders in the month, significantly higher than the 26 orders in August, demonstrating resilience in the aerospace sector [2] Group 5: AI Investment Impact - The investment surge driven by artificial intelligence is contributing to growth in certain manufacturing sectors, countering the negative effects of tariffs on manufacturing activity [1][2]