Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-26 15:16Core Insights - Meta is negotiating with Google to invest several billion dollars in using TPU at Meta's data center by 2027, and plans to rent Google chips from Google Cloud next year [1] - The comparison of processing power between Google's TPU v7 and Nvidia's Rubin (2 die) shows that TPU v7 requires significantly more optical modules, indicating a potential shift in market share from Nvidia to ASICs [1] - The estimated increase in ASIC's share of new processing power from 2025 to 2027 is approximately 10 percentage points [1] Group 1 - Google's demand for 2027 is expected to increase by 150% or more compared to the high base of 2026, with 2026 demand estimated at 10 million units of 1.6T and 800G [2] - The market has significantly underestimated the demand for 2026 and is ignoring the growth in demand for 2027, which is expected to continue increasing in visibility and confidence [2] Group 2 - There are three major discrepancies in expectations regarding optical communication: 1) Demand and inventory levels of leading companies for 2026 exceed market expectations [3] 2) The growth rate and confidence in demand for 2027 surpass market expectations, which the market is gradually pricing in [3] 3) Scale Up scenarios for optical interconnect products (NPO/AOC, etc.) are expected to be gradually introduced in 2027, potentially unlocking long-term valuation ceilings [3]