BA vs. GD: Who's the Clear Leader in the Defense Modernization Boom?

Core Insights - Geopolitical instability has driven growth for defense companies like Boeing and General Dynamics, with increased defense budgets from the U.S. and allies in response to rising tensions, particularly in Europe and the Middle East [1][2]. Defense Budget and Strategic Shift - The surge in defense funding reflects a strategic shift towards modernization and technological superiority, with governments prioritizing upgrades to outdated systems and investments in advanced weapon platforms [2]. - The U.S. defense budget is projected to increase by 13.4% to $1.01 trillion for fiscal 2026, with significant allocations for fighter jet programs and the Space Force [4]. Boeing's Position - Boeing's Defense, Space & Security segment is expected to benefit from rising U.S. defense spending, with a backlog of $76 billion and a 25% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025 [5]. - Boeing secured $9 billion in contract awards in Q3 2025, indicating strong demand for its defense portfolio [5]. General Dynamics' Position - General Dynamics has significant overseas opportunities, with contracts from various European countries, including a recent contract for the "LUCHS 2" reconnaissance vehicle for the German Army [6]. - The company reported a backlog of $109.9 billion at the end of Q3 2025, supported by strong order inflow and increased defense budgets advocating for expanded U.S. shipbuilding capacity [7]. Financial Performance Comparison - Boeing's earnings per share (EPS) estimates have decreased significantly, with declines of 353.81% and 55.91% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [9]. - In contrast, General Dynamics' EPS estimates have increased by 1.05% and 0.88% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [11]. Financial Stability - Boeing's cash and cash equivalents totaled $22.98 billion, with long-term debt at $44.61 billion, indicating a higher debt level compared to cash [12]. - General Dynamics had long-term debt of $7.01 billion and cash of $2.52 billion, showing a more favorable debt position [13]. Valuation and Debt Position - Boeing's forward Price/Sales (P/S F12M) multiple is 1.44, while General Dynamics' is 1.7, indicating a higher valuation for General Dynamics [14]. - Boeing's total debt to capital ratio stands at 118.3%, significantly higher than General Dynamics' 24.7% [15]. Stock Performance - Over the past six months, Boeing's shares have declined by 9.8%, while General Dynamics' shares have risen by 24.1% [16]. Investment Recommendation - General Dynamics is currently favored due to better price performance, strong earnings growth, and superior debt management compared to Boeing, which has high debt levels and negative earnings growth [18].