Bitcoin and Ethereum Stall as Traders Brace for Holiday Volatility

Market Performance - Bitcoin and Ethereum are down nearly 1% over the last 24 hours, while XRP has decreased by 3.1%, reversing earlier gains driven by ETF news [1] - Performance of other altcoins like Solana, BNB, and Dogecoin remains relatively stable, fluctuating between -1% and 1% [1] Market Liquidity and Volatility - Crypto markets will remain open during the Thanksgiving holiday, but liquidity and volume are expected to be low, potentially leading to increased volatility [2] - Market actions on this day are not necessarily influenced by the holiday, as noted by industry experts [2] Market Outlook - The crypto market outlook shifted from bearish to bullish after the likelihood of a December rate cut increased from 30% to 80% [3] - Investors are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut on December 10, which would lower the target rate to 3.50%-3.75% [3] Risk Sentiment - The repricing of Federal Reserve policy has led to a risk-on sentiment, with a 65% chance assigned for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 before hitting $69,000 [4] - While the outlook is currently bullish due to rate-cut expectations, it remains uncertain [4] Institutional Activity - Block options trading this week indicated $2 billion in long call condors from institutional or high-net-worth investors, suggesting expectations for Bitcoin to remain between $100,000 and $118,000 [5] - Analysts predict that traders will likely use a long call condor strategy, which is designed for range-bound assets [6] Options Market Insights - Options market data shows a negative skew and high short-dated implied volatility, indicating that bearish bets are still prevalent amid uncertainty [6]