英国秋季预算案出炉

Core Viewpoint - The UK government, led by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, has announced a second fiscal budget that includes a significant measure of extending the freeze on the personal income tax threshold for an additional three years, which is expected to generate £8 billion in revenue for the government [1]. Tax Policy Changes - The personal income tax threshold, which was previously adjusted annually based on the Consumer Price Index, has been frozen since 2021, leading to more individuals being pushed into higher tax brackets as wages rise [1]. - The government plans to cancel the cap on subsidies for families with two children starting in April, which is expected to cost over £2.3 billion [2]. - A new mansion tax will be imposed on properties valued over £2 million, projected to raise £4 billion [2]. - The gambling tax rate will be increased, including the introduction of a new comprehensive gambling tax, expected to generate £1.1 billion [2]. Economic Context - The UK economy has faced stagnation since the 2008 financial crisis, with local government funding increasingly strained despite rising allocations to healthcare and welfare [3]. - The government debt stands at £2.9 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding £100 billion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current fiscal model [3]. - The rising costs associated with an aging population and geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated the fiscal challenges [3]. Public Sentiment and Political Pressure - Public sentiment shows a significant portion of the population (42%) believes fiscal issues can be resolved without increasing taxes on ordinary citizens, while 63% feel that current tax levels are already high [6]. - The Labour Party, under Reeves, faces scrutiny for potentially breaking campaign promises not to raise taxes on the working population, with 69% of the public believing the party has deviated from its commitments [6]. - The relationship between Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer has become strained, with internal party pressures mounting as Starmer's approval ratings decline [7]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the budget, the yield on the UK benchmark 10-year government bonds rose by 4 basis points to 4.535% [1]. - The retail sector has shown significant declines in confidence, with a recent survey indicating the largest drop in 17 years, reflecting concerns about future economic conditions [8]. - Analysts predict that the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies may lead to increased borrowing costs, with the bond market showing little tolerance for unpredictability [9].