IONQ or Rigetti: Which is the Better Quantum Bet as 2025 Nears End?

Core Insights - Quantum computing is transitioning from research to early commercial traction, with IonQ and Rigetti Computing as key players in this shift [1][2] Group 1: IonQ Overview - Technical momentum includes achieving the AQ 64 performance milestone on Tempo ahead of schedule and a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, indicating a focus on qubit quality and algorithmic usefulness [3] - Commercial progress is highlighted by Q3 2025 revenues of $39.9 million, a 222% year-over-year increase, attributed to growth in computing and networking, sensing, and cybersecurity products [4] - The balance sheet is strengthened by a $2.0 billion equity offering, resulting in a pro-forma cash position of approximately $3.5 billion with no debt, supporting an aggressive multiyear product roadmap [5][16] Group 2: Rigetti Overview - Rigetti's roadmap includes plans for a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by end-2025, aiming for a 1,000+ qubit system by end-2027 [8] - Early commercial traction includes securing two purchase orders totaling $5.7 million for its 9-qubit Novera systems and a $5.8 million contract with the Air Force Research Laboratory, indicating growing interest in quantum hardware [9] - Despite revenue softness, Rigetti's stock performance surged 69.4% over three months, outperforming IonQ and the S&P 500 [10][17] Group 3: Financial Estimates - Earnings estimates for IonQ have declined significantly, with a projected loss of $5.14 per share for 2025, reflecting a 229.5% decline from the previous year [11] - Rigetti's earnings estimates also fell, with a projected loss of $0.68 per share for 2025, indicating an 88.9% decline from the prior year [15] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - IonQ is positioned with stronger revenue momentum and a fortified balance sheet, while Rigetti shows operational leverage and favorable earnings revisions [16][17] - IonQ is likely to maintain a comparative advantage in financial strength and commercial visibility, whereas Rigetti may offer higher-beta upside if it meets technical milestones [18]