Sakraida: Deere Quarter "Wasn't Terrible"; Investors Focused on 2026 Outlook

Core Viewpoint - Deer reported earnings that exceeded estimates on both revenue and profit, but the stock is declining due to weak guidance for the upcoming year, particularly in agriculture sectors [1][19]. Earnings Report Summary - The earnings report showed a recovery in volumes and pricing realization, but investors are primarily concerned about the guidance for 2026, which is perceived as weak [2][3]. - Analysts had anticipated a recovery in earnings, but the guidance indicates that recovery is not expected until the 2027 fiscal year [5][19]. Market Conditions - Approximately 70% of Deer’s sales come from North America, where farmers are facing challenges due to tariffs and low commodity prices, leading to a subdued market outlook [4][6]. - Current prices for key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat remain low despite record harvest yields, which negatively impacts farmer income and, consequently, demand for Deer’s products [7][8]. Investment Thesis - The investment thesis suggests that Deer must manage tariff costs effectively and see a recovery in market fundamentals to improve outlook. Current government stimulus is unlikely to drive significant demand [6][8]. - There is skepticism regarding the U.S.-China trade relationship, as past agreements have not always been honored, which poses risks for Deer’s agricultural sales [12][13]. Analyst Ratings and Price Target - Analysts maintain a sell rating on Deer, with a price target of $400, indicating a significant downside from the current trading price of around $470 [5][19]. - The stock is viewed as neutral to bearish, with strategies being considered to profit from potential declines or stability in stock price [16][18].