碳酸锂近半年涨价超60%

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has seen a significant rebound, with the main contract price rising over 60% in less than six months, driven by inventory depletion, increased demand, and tightening supply [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since October, the main contract price of lithium carbonate has consistently increased, surpassing 80,000 and 90,000 yuan per ton, reaching a peak of 102,500 yuan per ton on November 19, marking the highest level since June 2024 [1]. - The price trajectory for lithium carbonate has exhibited a clear "V" shape this year, dropping from around 77,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to below 60,000 yuan per ton mid-year, before recovering to near 100,000 yuan per ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The suspension of mining operations at CATL's Yichun lithium mine in August is viewed as a catalyst for the price rebound, leading to a significant increase in futures contracts and spot market prices [2]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's lithium division has called for a halt to vicious competition and emphasized the need for better coordination between upstream and downstream sectors, contributing to the upward price movement [2]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Demand - The strong rebound in lithium prices is fundamentally attributed to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with robust demand from the energy storage sector and uncertainties regarding the resumption of mining operations [4]. - The energy storage market has been experiencing high demand, with some companies operating at full capacity and orders extending into the next year [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Despite the price increases, there is a growing divergence in market sentiment, with downstream companies adopting a cautious approach and engaging in limited purchasing due to the rapid price hikes [4].