存储上下游紧急应对“超级周期” 供应链加码国产芯片

Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by demand for artificial intelligence, leading to significant cost pressures across the supply chain and a downward revision of shipment forecasts for next year [2][3]. Price Surge - Storage prices have accelerated sharply over the past two months, with DRAM prices for 4GB DDR4X rising from $7 to over $30, a 3-4 times increase, and Flash prices for 64G eMMC increasing from $3.2 to over $8, a nearly 1.5 times rise [3][4]. - The shortage of NAND Flash is exacerbated by the high demand for AI servers, leading to further price increases [3][4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain is urgently adjusting configurations and increasing the use of domestic storage chips to ensure supply, with expectations that price increases will continue into the first half of next year [2][9]. - Major manufacturers are facing severe shortages, with actual available quantities only about 30% of original orders, leading to a situation where some companies cannot purchase even with available funds [4][9]. Impact on Major Companies - Companies like NVIDIA and AMD are responding to rising DRAM prices by issuing price warnings and planning to increase prices on their GPU products by at least 10% [4][6]. - Lenovo is increasing its chip inventory by about 50% to avoid passing cost increases onto consumers, while also adjusting production forecasts for smartphones and laptops due to rising storage costs [7][8]. Shift in Market Strategy - The storage market is shifting from "depleting inventory" to "competing for inventory," with manufacturers benefiting from the recovery in market conditions [5][9]. - Domestic manufacturers are increasingly being utilized as key suppliers, with companies like Changxin Storage and Longsys gaining market share amid rising prices [9][10]. Future Outlook - The current storage price surge is expected to last for at least two more quarters, with the overall market tightness anticipated to persist into 2026 [8][9]. - The focus of investment in the DRAM and NAND Flash industries is shifting towards technology upgrades and high-value products rather than merely expanding capacity [8][10].