Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a high point not seen in over a year, with both onshore and offshore yuan rates rising to around 7.08, reflecting a "double strong" pattern against the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has shown resilience this year, with exports strengthening and a favorable international balance of payments, achieving a total foreign exchange balance of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, a historical high for the same period [1]. - There has been a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border capital, exceeding the level from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in foreign exchange market expectations and supply-demand conditions [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents has contributed to a stable and improving relationship, providing strong external support for the yuan's strength, with market expectations remaining stable [1]. - The trend of "selling high" by enterprises during exchange rate fluctuations has been observed, with a surplus of $80.9 billion in bank foreign exchange transactions in the first ten months, compared to a deficit of over $10 billion in the same period last year [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is anticipated to further support the yuan's strength, alongside the traditional seasonal peak for currency settlement at year-end, which is expected to provide significant upward momentum for the yuan [2]. - The Chinese foreign exchange market has demonstrated strong resilience and vitality amid complex international conditions, with rational market expectations and orderly trading, suggesting a favorable outlook for the yuan to maintain stability or even appreciate in the near term [2].
时报观察 | 升值动能不断积累 人民币稳的基础进一步夯实
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-26 18:46