What Kevin Hassett could mean for the future of the Fed, plus new tax info for crypto investors

Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing a rebound, with the Dow rising by approximately 0.33% (about 160 points), the S&P 500 up by about 0.33%, and the Nasdaq increasing by about 0.25% ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday [1] - Large-cap tech stocks are showing mixed performance, with Alphabet down by 1% and Nvidia rising, indicating sector volatility [1] - Utilities and energy sectors are performing well, while consumer discretionary and communications services are lagging, with healthcare being the best performer this quarter [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Markets are pricing in a potential rate cut in December, with Kevin Hasset emerging as a front-runner to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell [1][2] - Economic growth is expected to pick up in 2026, with GDP growth projected to be slightly below trend this year but improving due to tax season benefits for mid to lower-end consumers [1][2] - AI spending is estimated to contribute about 1.5% to GDP, accounting for approximately 25% of current GDP growth, indicating its importance but not suggesting a bubble [1][2] Consumer Spending and Holiday Shopping - A new survey indicates that 41% of consumers plan to do most of their holiday shopping between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, with 29% of holiday budgets already spent by November 1st [2][3] - Despite a cautious consumer sentiment, actual spending is anticipated to increase by 3-4% year-over-year during the holiday season, driven by discounts and promotions [2][3] - The spending behavior varies by income cohort, with lower to middle-income consumers trading down and seeking discounts, while higher-income consumers continue to spend significantly [2][3] Retail Sector Insights - Retailers like Abercrombie, Steve Madden, and TJX are expected to perform well during the holiday season due to product innovation and effective management of tariffs [4][5] - The retail market is experiencing a bifurcation, with lower-income consumers being more cautious while higher-income consumers are maintaining spending levels [4][5] - Gen Z and baby boomers are projected to be significant spenders, with Gen Z showing a shift towards in-store shopping despite initial plans to cut back [4][5] Technology Sector Developments - Alphabet's stock is nearing a $4 trillion market cap following the successful launch of its Gemini 3 AI model, outperforming other tech stocks [6] - Meta is reportedly in talks with Google to spend billions on Google's chips and data centers, indicating strong demand for AI-related technologies [6] - Analysts suggest that the market is currently favoring Google, but there may be better investment opportunities in companies like Meta and Oracle, which have been oversold [6]