Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-11-26 20:20Core Insights - The conference themed "Change and Leap" highlighted the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst global restructuring and transformation, with a focus on structural opportunities in the capital market [1][2] - China Galaxy Securities aims to inject financial momentum into the new development pattern, emphasizing the importance of capital markets in the upcoming five years [2][3] Economic Outlook - The chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, Zhang Jun, introduced the "ReNew" framework, predicting a convergence of growth rates between emerging and developed markets, and a rebalancing of the US and Chinese economies [3][4] - Zhang emphasized the importance of new supply-side reforms in 2026, focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, eliminating outdated production capacity, and promoting AI and digital economy development [3][4] Policy and Market Predictions - The macro chief analyst, Zhang Di, forecasted a stable policy environment in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and special government bonds between 1.3 trillion and 1.5 trillion yuan to support consumption [4] - Zhang also predicted a mild re-inflation with CPI growth around 0.4% and a recovery in PPI, which would positively impact corporate profits and household income expectations [4] Investment Strategy - The strategy chief analyst, Yang Chao, suggested that the A-share market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on new quality productivity and manufacturing sector optimization [5][6] - Yang recommended two main investment lines: focusing on key areas such as AI, quantum technology, and new energy, and capitalizing on domestic consumption policies [5][6] Technology Trends - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities discussed the future of the computer industry, predicting a shift towards AI applications and increased domestic computing power penetration [6] - The communication sector is expected to benefit from AI computing power, with a focus on operational efficiency and advancements in quantum technology [6]