美加征关税令印度外贸持续承压

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. has severely impacted India's exports, leading to a significant increase in trade deficit, while recent trade negotiations show signs of improvement [1][2][4]. Group 1: Export Performance - India's exports to the U.S. dropped from a peak of $8.8 billion in May 2025 to $5.5 billion in September 2025, resulting in a trade deficit of $32.15 billion in September, the highest in 13 months [1]. - In October, India's exports to the U.S. rebounded to $6.3 billion, a 14.5% month-on-month increase, although this still represented an 8.6% decline compared to the same month in 2024 [1][2]. - Overall, India's merchandise exports fell by 11.8% year-on-year in October, with significant declines in exports to major markets, including a drop of over 50% to Singapore and Australia, and declines exceeding 20% to Italy, the UK, and the Netherlands [2]. Group 2: Government Response - The Indian government has introduced a $5 billion export support scheme aimed at assisting exporters affected by U.S. tariffs and global trade slowdowns, focusing on small and medium enterprises and labor-intensive sectors [3]. - Efforts to diversify trade partnerships are underway, with India accelerating free trade agreement negotiations with the UK, EU, Australia, New Zealand, and Gulf countries [3]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - Recent trade negotiations between India and the U.S. have shown positive developments, particularly in energy and defense procurement, including a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) procurement agreement and a 10-year defense cooperation framework [4]. - The IMF has revised India's economic growth forecast for FY 2025/2026 upward by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6%, indicating potential for sustained economic growth contingent on improved external trade conditions [4].