灌水21万亿 高市早苗1.7万亿强化国防！“卖出日元”成国际趋势

Core Points - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has approved a comprehensive economic stimulus plan totaling 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 965.6 billion RMB), marking the first major economic initiative since Kishida took office [1] - The core of this plan includes a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025, with general account expenditures reaching 17.7 trillion yen, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily aimed at alleviating the cost of living for households [1][6] - Concerns have been raised by major investment banks regarding the effectiveness of this fiscal expansion in stimulating the economy, especially in light of Japan's labor shortages and rising debt risks [4][12] Economic Measures - The 17.7 trillion yen supplementary budget significantly exceeds last year's 13.9 trillion yen, representing a 27% increase [6] - Key allocations include 8.9 trillion yen for price relief and improving living standards, with direct financial support measures such as energy cost subsidies and child allowances [9][10] - The government plans to provide 7,000 yen in subsidies for electricity and gas bills per household and 20,000 yen per child for families with children under 18, without income restrictions [9][10] Fiscal Concerns - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have expressed skepticism about the stimulus's potential impact, citing Japan's labor shortages and the risk of exacerbating debt and fiscal deficits [4][12] - Japan's public debt is projected to reach 1,350 trillion yen (approximately 8.8 trillion USD), with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 263%, the highest among major economies [14][19] - The anticipated fiscal deficit for 2025 could be around 10 trillion yen, approximately 1.5% of Japan's GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of government debt [14][15] Inflation and Economic Growth - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen for 49 consecutive months, with a 2.9% year-on-year increase as of September [9] - The ongoing inflationary pressures and stagnant wage growth are dampening consumer spending, leading to cautious consumer sentiment [12] - Experts warn that the current fiscal policies may only provide temporary relief without addressing underlying supply-side issues, potentially leading to further inflation [22][30] Labor Market and Corporate Impact - The labor market is facing significant challenges, with a declining trend in new job openings and rising minimum wage standards, which may pressure small and medium-sized enterprises [13][25] - The disparity in labor distribution rates between large and small enterprises indicates that while large firms have room for wage increases, small businesses are struggling to maintain profitability [25] - The government's focus on defense spending, projected to exceed 11 trillion yen, may further strain fiscal resources and lead to misallocation of funds [26][30]