时报观察 升值动能不断积累 人民币稳的基础进一步夯实

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing upward momentum against the US dollar, supported by various economic factors and market conditions, indicating a potential for continued strength in the currency. Group 1: Currency Performance - On November 26, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was raised again, reaching a high not seen in over a year, with onshore and offshore yuan both rising to around 7.08 [1] - Since mid-September, the US dollar index has strengthened from around 96 to nearly 100, while the yuan has shown an upward trend against the dollar, reflecting a strong performance against a basket of currencies [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has shown resilience this year, with enhanced export strength and a favorable international balance of payments, achieving a record total of $11.6 trillion in foreign-related receipts for the first three quarters [2] - There has been a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border funds, surpassing the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in foreign exchange market expectations and supply-demand conditions [2] Group 3: Market Expectations - The meeting between the Chinese and US leaders has contributed to a stable and improving bilateral relationship, providing strong external support for the yuan's strength [2] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is anticipated to further support the yuan's appreciation [2] - The end of the year is traditionally a peak season for currency settlement, which is expected to provide additional upward momentum for the yuan [2] Group 4: Risk Management and Market Dynamics - Companies are increasingly adopting a neutral stance on exchange rate risks, and improvements in risk management are enhancing the stability of the yuan [2] - The price mechanism is playing a more significant role in balancing market supply and demand, further solidifying the foundation for the yuan's stability [2]