美联储褐皮书：消费者支出进一步走弱，经济活动变化不大

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly in recent weeks, with consumer spending declining further, except for high-income consumers whose spending remains robust [1] - The Fed's Beige Book highlights a rising risk of economic activity slowing in the coming months, although there is some optimism in the manufacturing sector [1] Consumer Spending - Regions including New York, Atlanta, and Minneapolis report that high-income consumers continue to show resilience in their spending [2] - In contrast, middle and low-income consumers are tightening their budgets, as noted by a respondent from the Minneapolis Fed [2] Employment Trends - Despite an increase in layoff announcements, many regions report that businesses are opting for cost-saving measures such as hiring freezes and natural attrition rather than direct layoffs [2][2] - The report notes that recent wage increases are generally in line with the Fed's inflation targets, but there are still "moderate" wage pressures in manufacturing, construction, and healthcare sectors [2] Price Pressures - Tariffs remain a significant concern for businesses, particularly in manufacturing and retail, with many reporting increased input cost pressures [2] - Some companies indicate that tariffs have led to tighter profit margins or increased financial pressure, while others report price declines due to decreased demand or postponed tariffs [2] Government Impact - The report was largely compiled during a federal government shutdown, which negatively affected consumer spending according to some retailers [3] - The shutdown disrupted the issuance of SNAP benefits, leading to an increase in demand for food assistance [3] Market Expectations - The Fed officials will not have access to most labor market and inflation data until after the December meeting, which has intensified internal divisions regarding potential interest rate cuts [3] - Market expectations for the December meeting fluctuate between "rate cut" and "no change," with the probability of a rate cut rising to approximately 80% following supportive comments from officials [3]