Crude Prices Tumble on Hopes for an End to the Russian-Ukrainian War

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down -1.37 (-2.33%) and January RBOB gasoline is down -0.0363 (-1.99%) [1] - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 5-week lows due to expectations of increased global oil supplies following a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Weaker-than-expected US economic data negatively impacts energy demand and crude prices, with September retail sales rising only +0.2% month-over-month, below the expected +0.4% [3] - The US private payrolls fell by an average of -13,500 per week in the four weeks ending November 8, indicating a slowdown in job growth [3] - The Conference Board's US November consumer confidence index fell -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than the expected 93.3 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Oil prices are supported by reduced crude exports from Russia, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 15 days of November, the lowest in over 3 years [4] - Ukraine has targeted at least 28 Russian refineries, knocking out 13% to 20% of Russia's refining capacity by the end of October, which has curtailed production by as much as 1.1 million bpd [4] - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have further limited Russian oil exports [4] Group 4: Storage and Supply Dynamics - Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +9.7% week-over-week to 114.31 million barrels, the highest level in 2.25 years [5] - Continued geopolitical risks related to Russia and the US military buildup for a possible attack on Venezuela, the world's 12th-largest oil producer, provide underlying support for oil prices [5]