凌晨！美联储重磅发布！降息预期飙升

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly, with consumer spending continuing to decline [1][2] - The report highlights that the government shutdown has negatively impacted consumer decision-making, particularly affecting low-income groups [2][3] - There is a growing concern among businesses about the risk of economic activity slowing down in the coming months, although some optimism exists in the manufacturing sector [2][3] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 85%, with a 67.2% chance of cumulative cuts by January [4][5] - JPMorgan has revised its forecast, now expecting the Fed to initiate rate cuts in December, reversing its previous stance of delaying until January [5][6] - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, as he has expressed support for immediate rate cuts [6]