英国公布新预算案，多举措加税260亿英镑

Core Viewpoint - The UK government's autumn budget, presented by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, is unlikely to change the prevailing pessimism regarding the UK economy, which is characterized by weak growth, high inflation, and fiscal pressures [1][8]. Taxation Measures - The budget extends the freeze on personal income tax and national insurance thresholds for an additional three years, effectively increasing the tax burden as more taxpayers will enter higher tax brackets due to inflation [3]. - The annual tax-free allowance for cash Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) will be reduced from £20,000 to £12,000 starting April 2027, encouraging savers to invest more in stocks [3]. - A new tax on high-value residential properties will be introduced, with properties valued over £2 million subject to an annual surcharge of £2,500, and those over £5 million facing a £7,500 surcharge starting in 2028 [3]. Additional Fiscal Measures - A new road tax system for electric vehicles will be implemented, charging 3 pence per mile for pure electric vehicles and 1.5 pence for plug-in hybrids starting April 2028, aimed at compensating for declining fuel tax revenues [4]. - The budget includes reforms such as limiting tax-free pension contributions, increasing taxes on interest and dividend income, tightening corporate depreciation allowances, and raising taxes on gambling and alcohol [5]. Economic Outlook - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that the government's fiscal buffer will increase to £22 billion, up by approximately £12 billion from previous forecasts, but tax revenue is expected to reach a historical high of 38% of GDP by the 2030-31 fiscal year [5]. - Despite the budget's measures, analysts express caution, noting that the extended tax thresholds and increased investment income tax rates will likely raise the tax burden on households, particularly those with slower income growth [6][7]. Market Reaction - Following the budget announcement, the UK financial markets reacted positively, with the FTSE 100 index rising by 0.85%, the yield on ten-year government bonds falling by 7.2 basis points to 4.427%, and the pound appreciating by approximately 0.50% against the dollar [6]. - However, some analysts caution that the pound's rise may be more influenced by a weakening dollar rather than confidence in the UK budget itself, as the economic outlook remains constrained by high inflation and slow growth [6][7]. Structural Economic Issues - The budget is set against a backdrop of weak economic growth, persistent inflation, insufficient investment, and stagnant productivity, with the OBR downgrading growth forecasts beyond 2026 [8][9]. - The UK labor market shows signs of strain, with rising unemployment rates and declining job vacancies, while consumer confidence remains low due to high prices and tax increase expectations [9].