中信证券:本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间 继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-27 00:42

Core Viewpoint - After the Double Festival, supply and demand remain stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, and both contract and spot prices showing stable month-on-month changes. The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, with ambient products performing weaker than chilled ones. However, deep processing and overseas expansion are growing rapidly from a low base, indicating a promising future [1] Group 1: Dairy Industry - Milk prices are stabilizing after the holiday season, indicating a bottoming phase [1] - Demand for dairy products is under pressure, particularly in ambient segments compared to chilled segments [1] - Deep processing and overseas markets are experiencing rapid growth from a low base, suggesting a bright outlook for the future [1] Group 2: Beef Industry - In Q3, beef cattle prices have shown high volatility, with a cumulative reduction in stock expected to exceed 10% since the beginning of 2024 [1] - By 2026, there is anticipated downward pressure on the supply side of beef cattle, referencing the previous cycle's reduction and price recovery patterns [1] - The current cycle for live cattle prices is expected to have upward potential, with a positive outlook for the synergy between beef cattle and raw milk cycles [1]

CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.-中信证券:本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间 继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振 - Reportify