美联储"褐皮书"引爆市场！美股四连涨，降息预期飙升至85%，银价暴涨超4%

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.67%, S&P 500 up 0.69%, and Nasdaq up 0.82%, marking four consecutive days of gains [1] - Market sentiment was boosted by the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, which revealed subtle changes in the U.S. economy and raised expectations for a rate cut in December to 85% [1][11] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, below the market expectation of 225,000, marking the lowest level since April [3] - The Beige Book indicated that consumer spending has declined overall, except for high-end purchases, and noted the negative impact of the government shutdown on consumer decisions [3] - Approximately half of the districts reported weakened labor demand, with many companies opting for hiring freezes or only replacing departing employees rather than outright layoffs [3] Technology Sector Performance - Tech stocks led the market rally, with Oracle's stock rising over 4% and analysts suggesting that recent sell-offs were overreactions [4] - Other tech stocks such as AMD and Broadcom also saw gains of over 3%, while major players like Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft rose over 1% [6][7] - Dell Technologies surged 5.8% due to strong demand for AI data center servers, exceeding quarterly earnings expectations [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.03%, with mixed performances among popular Chinese stocks [8] - Pinduoduo rose 1.58%, while companies like Bilibili and Xpeng Motors dropped over 2% [8] Precious Metals and Oil - Precious metals saw a strong performance, with COMEX silver futures rising 4.12% and gold futures up 0.41% [10] - International oil prices also rebounded, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by $0.70 to $58.65 per barrel [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 85%, with a 15% chance of maintaining current rates [11] - JPMorgan has revised its forecast, now expecting a rate cut in December rather than January [11] - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [11] Market Projections - With expectations of a shift in Fed policy, the market is preparing for a new round of easing, with Deutsche Bank predicting the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 by the end of 2026, indicating an upside of about 18% [12]