英国预算案获市场认可 英债收益率走低 先锋与RLAM等巨头入场加仓

Core Insights - The UK government bond market experienced significant gains following the budget proposal by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, marking the largest increase in long-term UK bonds since April [1] - Vanguard Group and Royal London Asset Management (RLAM) have resumed purchasing UK government bonds, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook despite ongoing fiscal challenges [1][5] - The market reacted positively to Reeves' budget, which included tax increases aimed at stabilizing the UK's fiscal situation, leading to a notable drop in the yield of 30-year UK bonds [1][6] Group 1 - Vanguard's international rates head, Ales Koutny, reduced UK bond holdings prior to the budget due to anticipated market volatility but resumed buying after the budget announcement, citing overly pessimistic pricing [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield fell by 12 basis points, the largest single-day drop since April, reflecting sensitivity to economic outlook [1] - RLAM's Craig Inches capitalized on market volatility by trading UK bonds, expecting that stringent tax policies will burden households and create conditions for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [5] Group 2 - The UK pound rose above $1.32, and the 10-year UK bond yield fell for the fifth consecutive day to 4.42%, indicating a positive market response to the budget [6] - The budget revealed a fiscal buffer exceeding expectations, with £22 billion available, which could mitigate potential adverse scenarios for UK bonds [10] - The Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded economic growth forecasts while predicting rising inflation and stronger wage growth, impacting investor sentiment positively [10] Group 3 - The UK government's cautious borrowing strategy aims to balance the demands of bondholders for fiscal prudence with political realities of spending cuts [11] - Despite concerns over the credibility of Reeves' plans, the market's positive reaction suggests increased investor optimism regarding the UK's fiscal trajectory [11] - The budget's potential drag on mid-term economic growth may exert downward pressure on UK bond yields, reflecting a complex interplay of fiscal policy and market expectations [11]