智通财经网·2025-11-27 01:29Core Viewpoint - The current environment is characterized by accelerated long-term capital inflow, maintaining high market activity, indicating a "healthy bull" market. The transformation of wealth management, international business expansion, and financial technology empowerment are expected to drive the industry's ROE improvement, with optimism for investment opportunities in the securities industry by 2026 [1] Group 1: 2025 Review - The overall performance of the securities sector has underperformed the market, with a 3.38% increase compared to a 12.72 percentage point underperformance against the CSI 300 index [2] - As of the third quarter, the 42 listed securities firms achieved a total operating income of 419.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 169.05 billion yuan, up 65.67% year-on-year [2] - There is a mismatch between the market's perception of the securities firms' performance and their valuation, with potential catalysts for valuation recovery including sustained high growth in performance, major mergers and acquisitions, and unexpected policy implementations [2] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The external policy environment is expected to have a strong positive effect, with a monetary policy likely to maintain a moderately loose overall tone, including anticipated interest rate cuts and new policy tools to support market liquidity [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes capital market reforms, focusing on enhancing stability, expanding funding sources, and invigorating market participants, which will optimize the operating environment for the securities industry [3] - The securities industry is expected to demonstrate resilience through a value transition, with high trading activity supporting brokerage business, accelerated wealth management transformation, and a recovery in IPOs and financing in the Hong Kong market [3] - The heavy capital business will remain a key driver of performance, with a shift towards equity investment as fixed income allocation space tightens, while strict regulations will limit non-directional investment expansion [3]