美股三大指数四连涨，美联储12月降息预期持续升温

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed a positive trend on November 26, with all three major indices rising for four consecutive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 314.67 points to close at 47,427.12, a gain of 0.67% [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 46.73 points, closing at 6,812.61, reflecting a 0.69% increase [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 189.1 points, ending at 23,214.69, which is an increase of 0.82% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Technology stocks mostly rose, with Oracle up over 4%, AMD nearly 4%, and Broadcom over 3%, reaching historical highs. Nvidia, Tesla, Netflix, and Microsoft increased by over 1%, while Apple rose by 0.21%, also hitting a historical high. Google, however, fell by over 1% [1] - Retail stocks showed strong performance, with Walmart increasing by nearly 2% to a historical high, Kohl's up over 7%, Macy's up over 2%, and Costco up over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.03%. Bilibili and Xpeng Motors fell by over 2%, while Baidu dropped by 1.31%. Pinduoduo rose by 1.58%, JD.com by 0.96%, and Alibaba by 0.38% [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, below the market expectation of 225,000, marking the lowest level since April [2] - The report indicated that overall consumer spending has declined, except for high-end consumer spending [2] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently estimate an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December and will make two additional cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 [4] - JPMorgan revised its forecast, now expecting a rate cut in December, shifting from a previous prediction of a delay until January [4] - Deutsche Bank strategists anticipate that the S&P 500 index will rise to 8,000 by the end of 2026, indicating an upside potential of approximately 18% [4]