资金面整体均衡 债券收益率震荡下行

Core Viewpoint - The external environment remains complex and uncertain as of Q4 2025, necessitating supportive monetary policies to stabilize the financial market and bolster domestic economic recovery [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to ensure liquidity arrangements across short, medium, and long terms [1][2] - In October, the PBOC announced the resumption of government bond trading, which temporarily boosted market confidence and contributed to a balanced and loose funding environment [2][3] - The average daily trading volume and balance in the interbank currency market saw a slight increase, with major repo rates declining [1][2] Group 2: Market Transactions and Liquidity - In October, the interbank market recorded a total transaction volume of 172.8 trillion yuan, representing a month-on-month decrease of 18.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [1] - The PBOC's open market operations included a net injection of 200 billion yuan from government bond trading and a net injection of 4 trillion yuan from reverse repos [2][3] - The overall funding environment remained loose, with the PBOC's actions ensuring stability despite significant market fluctuations due to tax periods [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - In October, the bond market saw a total issuance of 3.87 trillion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 20.6% but a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [5] - Long-term bond yields experienced fluctuations, with the yield curve flattening; specific yields for various maturities showed mixed movements, with some declining and others slightly increasing [5][6] - The resumption of government bond trading is expected to stabilize the yield curve and reduce financing costs for the real economy [3][6] Group 4: Interest Rate Swaps and Trading Activity - The interest rate swap curve shifted downward in October, with significant declines in long-end rates; daily trading volume in interest rate swaps increased [7] - The average daily transaction volume for RMB interest rate swaps reached 186 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 23.4% [7] - The trading of standard bond forwards and interest rate options also saw substantial increases, indicating heightened market activity [7]