大反弹！澳元政策贸易双引擎引航

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a rebound against the US dollar (USD) due to the policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), along with resilient trade relations between China and Australia and fluctuations in oil prices [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The core driver of the AUD's movement is the difference in central bank policies, with the market betting on an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, while JPMorgan suggests a pause in rate cuts [1] - The RBA maintained its interest rate in November, indicating a "slightly restrictive" policy stance, which supports the AUD, especially after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Oil Prices - China, as Australia's largest trading partner, has stable trade in iron ore and liquefied natural gas, which supports the Australian economy [1] - Despite Goldman Sachs lowering its 2026 Brent oil price forecast to $58 per barrel, short-term oil price fluctuations have not impacted Australia's energy exports significantly [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a "bottoming rebound" for the AUD, with the exchange rate recovering from a low of 0.6373 and breaking through the resistance at 0.653 [1] - The 5-day moving average has crossed above the 10-day moving average, forming a golden cross, with a new support range established between 0.651 and 0.652, and short-term resistance at 0.655 [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - The weekly level shows a trend of oscillating upward, with the Bollinger Bands expanding, indicating a brewing trend [2] - Differing institutional views exist, with some predicting short-term resistance at 0.655-0.658, while others suggest that if the Fed cuts rates, the AUD could reach 0.66 [2] - The upcoming US CPI and Australia's fourth-quarter inflation report will be crucial in determining the future direction of the AUD [2]