加元震荡偏强油价成核心驱动

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent high of 1.4062, driven by divergent monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside economic fundamentals and oil price movements [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October, marking the fourth cut of the year, and revised GDP growth expectations for 2025 down to 1.2% [1]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in November, but the US added 227,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations, which increased market expectations for a rate cut in December from 67% to 85% [1]. Economic Conditions - The Canadian economy is facing challenges, with a first-quarter GDP growth rate of 1.7% and weak performance in exports, investment, and consumption [1]. - In contrast, the US economy shows resilience, with a 4% increase in hourly wages and a consumer confidence index rising to 98.0 [1]. Oil Prices and Currency Impact - The Canadian dollar, as a resource currency, is highly correlated with oil prices, which have dropped from $77 per barrel in February to $68.33, negatively impacting Canadian energy exports [1]. - The widening interest rate differential of over 200 basis points between the US and Canada supports the strength of the USD against the CAD [1]. Technical Analysis - The exchange rate is stabilizing around the Bollinger Band midline of 1.3865, with resistance at 1.4062 and 1.4100, and support at 1.3980 and 1.3950, indicating a short-term strong oscillating pattern [2]. - Institutions predict that if the exchange rate breaks above 1.4062, it could open up further upward movement [2]. Market Variables - Key variables to monitor include the Federal Reserve's December decision, Canadian inflation data for November, and international oil prices influenced by OPEC+ policies and demand signals [2]. - The MACD indicator suggests that the exchange rate is at a critical point, and investors should be cautious of increased volatility following a breakout [3]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a trading strategy within the 1.3980-1.4060 range, tracking oil prices and US-Canada economic data [3]. - A rise in oil prices above $70 or signals from the Bank of Canada to pause rate cuts could present opportunities to buy CAD, while a cooling of Fed rate cut expectations could favor USD appreciation against CAD [3].