银行间外汇市场交投总量平稳

Core Insights - In October, global financial markets experienced increased volatility due to multiple uncertainties, while China's interbank foreign exchange market maintained stable trading volumes with a daily average trading volume of $205.18 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.30% but a month-on-month increase of 6.72% [1][2] Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The RMB exchange rate rose to a yearly high in October before experiencing fluctuations, with the exchange rate against the USD reaching a low of 7.1433 and later stabilizing around 7.11 to 7.12 [2] - By the end of October, the onshore RMB exchange rate closed at 7.1135, appreciating 0.07% compared to September, while the CFETS RMB index against a basket of currencies reported a 0.87% appreciation [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $205.18 billion in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.30% but a month-on-month increase of 6.72%, marking two consecutive months of growth [2] - The average daily trading volume for RMB in the foreign exchange market was $152.54 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.72% but a month-on-month increase of 6.30% [2] Group 3: Options and Volatility - RMB foreign exchange options trading remained stable in October, with an average daily transaction of $5.23 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.07% [3] - The implied volatility for RMB/USD options remained low, indicating stable market expectations for short-term RMB exchange rate movements [3] Group 4: Domestic and Offshore Exchange Rate Differences - The domestic foreign exchange differential gradually converged and turned positive by the end of October, with the average daily differential being -29 basis points, an increase of 25 basis points from September [4] - As of October 28, the offshore RMB (CNH) appreciated by 0.15% to 7.1164, with market participants shifting from net buying to net selling of foreign exchange by the end of the month [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Behavior - The market's herd effect index in October was 61.89, a decrease of 1.01 points from September, indicating a weaker herd effect compared to the historical average [5] Group 6: Swap Points and Interest Rate Dynamics - Long-term swap points reached a three-year high in October, driven by strong market buying pressure, with the one-year swap point closing at -1287 basis points, an increase of 35 basis points from September [6][7] - The one-year swap point's increase was primarily influenced by market supply and demand factors, despite a slight decrease in interest rate factors [7]