有色60ETF（159881）涨超1.5%，铜价中枢有望稳中上行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper is irreplaceable in the green decarbonization process, with demand expected to more than double by 2050 due to electrification, grid expansion, renewable energy generation, and electric vehicle usage [1] - The main drivers for copper demand include the expansion of the power grid, renewable energy generation (wind, solar, and storage), and the electrification of transportation, where the copper usage in electric vehicles is 2.5 times that of fuel vehicles [1] - Structural challenges in copper supply include overseas resource concentration, declining ore grades, and long development cycles for new mines, with a projected supply-demand gap of 30% to 40% by 2035 [1] Group 2 - Carbon emissions from the smelting process account for 90% of the industry's emissions, highlighting the need for accelerated green transformation [1] - The current proportion of recycled copper is only 17%, significantly below the 50% required to meet carbon neutrality goals, with policies aiming for 24% recycled copper by 2025 in China [1] - Long-term outlook suggests that copper prices are likely to trend upwards, with low-carbon copper potentially commanding a structural premium [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous Metal 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in nonferrous metal mining, smelting, and processing, covering sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metal industry, with a balanced distribution across various sectors [1]