智通财经网·2025-11-27 03:22Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has raised its earnings per share forecast for Chow Tai Fook (01929) for the years 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 5%, and increased the 12-month target price from HKD 15.5 to HKD 18, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times and reiterating a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026 were 2% to 3% lower than market expectations, but the company believes that positive factors outweigh negative ones [1] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio and per-share dividend, while also raising its guidance for the second half of the fiscal year 2026, which Daiwa considers conservative [1] Gold Price Impact - During the first half of fiscal year 2026, the price of gold increased by 40% year-on-year, leading to a hedge loss of approximately HKD 3.1 billion [1] - If gold prices remain at the current level (approximately USD 4,100 per ounce) before the end of fiscal year 2026, an estimated additional hedge loss of about HKD 2 billion is expected in the second half of the fiscal year [1] - However, higher gross margins are anticipated to offset these impacts, with management raising its gross margin guidance to 31% to 32% following a significant retail price increase, including a 20% price hike on gold products [1] Sales Growth Outlook - Management has maintained its previous guidance for revenue and same-store sales growth in the low single digits and mid-single digits, but Daiwa believes this is overly conservative, expecting a low double-digit growth in same-store sales for the first three quarters [1]