天齐锂业蒋安琪：行业供需格局改善将助力破除同质化竞争

Core Insights - The lithium industry is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, which is expected to help break the homogenization of competition within the sector [1][2] - The global lithium demand is projected to reach 1.45 million tons of LCE, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 22% due to strong demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage systems [1] - The price of lithium salts has slightly rebounded to 110,000-120,000 yuan per ton, driven by accelerated inventory depletion and marginal supply-demand improvement [1] Industry Trends - The lithium industry is transitioning from a phase of excess supply to one of improved supply-demand balance, with a notable reduction in the degree of oversupply compared to 2024 [1][4] - The industry is witnessing a shift from "quantity" to "quality," with low-cost and innovative players expected to emerge victorious in the upcoming cycle reversal [2] - The focus on technological innovation and global collaboration is emphasized as a means to enhance the resilience and security of the supply chain [1] Technological Developments - Solid-state battery technology is a key topic of discussion, with various experts exploring its technical pathways and commercialization prospects [3] - The core materials for solid-state batteries are categorized into three main types: sulfide-based, oxide-based, and polymer-based electrolytes, with sulfide-based materials being favored for their high energy density and conductivity [3] - Tianqi Lithium is advancing its sulfide lithium pilot line, with an expected annual production capacity of 50 tons set to be completed by the second half of 2026 [3] Market Dynamics - The shift in mindset from "excess thinking" to "supply-demand improvement" among leading industry players marks a fundamental change in the lithium sector [4] - The emphasis on safety stock has increased, transitioning from a de-inventory cycle to a replenishment cycle, which may drive the price of lithium carbonate upward [4]