开源证券: 电改加速深化 预期有望趋稳

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, a supply-demand pattern of "abundant electricity generation, tight electricity supply" is expected, with comprehensive electricity prices likely to stabilize [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Pricing - From January to November 2025, the overall performance of dividend-style sectors has been poor, while electricity demand has maintained steady growth, with total electricity consumption in China reaching 8.62 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - The price of thermal coal has bottomed out and is expected to drive a rebound in electricity prices. From the end of 2023 to mid-2025, thermal coal prices have been on a downward trend, but began to rebound in July 2025, with the monthly clearing price in Jiangsu's electricity market reaching 395.60 yuan per megawatt-hour, an increase of 82.80 yuan per megawatt-hour [3]. Group 2: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Hydropower operations remain stable, with major river basin water levels holding steady. The net interest margin for hydropower has increased by 69 basis points compared to the average from May 2023 to April 2024, indicating long-term allocation value in a low-interest-rate environment [4]. - The marketization ratio of nuclear power is gradually increasing, with the marketization electricity volume cap for Lingao and Yangjiang nuclear power plants set at 31.2 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, a 14.3% increase from 2025. The impact of natural uranium price fluctuations on operators is minimal [5]. Group 3: Green Energy and Grid Equipment - The implementation of policy uncertainties regarding green electricity income has been established, with market reforms entering a deeper phase. The wind power tax rebate has been reduced, indicating that the policy bottom has been reached [6]. - Investment in domestic grid equipment shows structural differentiation, with cumulative procurement of State Grid transmission and transformation equipment reaching 78.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The cumulative procurement for ultra-high voltage equipment reached 20.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [7].