中间价年内涨约1000基点 人民币汇率创逾一年新高

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to China's economic recovery, strong foreign trade performance, and the weakening of the US dollar index, with the RMB reaching a new high against the dollar since last year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - On November 25, both offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar broke the 7.09 mark, reaching a high not seen in over a year [1]. - The People's Bank of China reported the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 1000 basis points [1]. - The three major RMB exchange rate indices have risen to their highest levels since early April, with the CFETS index at 98.22, the BIS index at 104.66, and the SDR index at 92.60 [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - Experts attribute the RMB's strong performance to its favorable fundamentals and capital flows relative to non-USD currencies, supported by a recovering domestic economy and robust foreign trade [1][2]. - The outlook for the RMB in 2026 is positive, driven by domestic economic recovery, accelerated technological innovation, stabilization of US-China trade relations, and potential further weakening of the US dollar due to credit issues and possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming for stability in the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [2].