QCP 分析：风险情绪改善推动市场将 12 月降息概率上调至 85%

Core Insights - BTC remains stable in the $80,000 range, with improved risk sentiment pushing the probability of a rate cut in December to 85% [1] - Inflation remains high and labor data is weakening, with upcoming unemployment claims and ADP data set to further test macro expectations [1] - Crypto fund flows are weak, with ETFs continuing to see net outflows, and most products below $1 million NAV [1] - Year-end BTC faces significant downward hedging pressure, with supply-side factors potentially suppressing price increases towards $90,000, while the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a critical support zone [1]