Sugar Prices Climb on Dollar Weakness and Smaller Indian Sugar Exports

Core Insights - Sugar prices have increased due to a weaker dollar and are consolidating below recent one-month highs, supported by India's potential increase in ethanol prices which may lead to reduced sugar supplies [2][3] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, lower than previous estimates of 2 MMT, following a quota system introduced in 2022/23 due to production issues [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 MMT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with recent lows recorded in both London and New York markets due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5][6] - Brazil's sugar production estimates for 2025/26 have been raised to 45 MMT, with significant year-on-year increases in sugar output and the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [6]