英国公布中期增税预算案 财政缓冲为央行降息铺路

Core Points - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the Autumn Budget for 2025, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projecting a significant increase in fiscal buffer from £9.9 billion to £21.7 billion by March 2025 [1] - The budget is expected to generate an additional £26.1 billion in tax revenue by the fiscal year 2029/30, with a total tax increase of £29.8 billion primarily targeting the gambling, high-end real estate, and investment income sectors [1][2] - The budget maintains a commitment not to raise income tax, VAT, or national insurance main rates, but expands the tax base through various measures [2][3] Tax Measures - Key measures include extending the freeze on personal income tax and national insurance thresholds until the fiscal year 2030/31, which is expected to push nearly 2 million taxpayers into higher tax brackets, generating an estimated £8 billion in revenue by 2029/30 [3] - The annual tax-free allowance for cash ISAs for residents under 65 will be reduced from £20,000 to £12,000 starting April 2027 [2][3] - Additional taxes will be imposed on residential properties valued over £2 million and £5 million, as well as mileage taxes on electric and hybrid vehicles starting in 2028 [2][3] Economic Outlook - The OBR's economic forecast shows a mixed outlook, with a short-term GDP growth forecast increase from 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025, but a decrease from 1.9% to 1.4% for 2026 [4] - Inflation predictions for 2025 have been adjusted upward from 3.3% to 3.5%, with the budget measures expected to reduce inflation by 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter of 2026 [5] - The budget's impact on inflation remains uncertain, as increased operational costs from tax measures may lead to higher prices in services, which constitute over 80% of the UK economy [5][6] Market Reaction - The budget is recognized as the third-largest tax increase plan in the last fifteen years, with positive reactions from financial markets, boosting confidence in the UK's fiscal sustainability [8] - Analysts suggest that while the budget may help alleviate short-term inflation, the core inflation remains resilient, delaying the timeline for returning to the 2% target until 2027 [8][9] - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential negative impact of tax measures on consumer spending and the housing market [9] Political Context - This budget is the second under the Labour government, aiming to balance election promises with fiscal consolidation amid high public debt and economic challenges [11] - The budget does not implement aggressive austerity but reinforces the fiscal framework, reducing concerns about fiscal irresponsibility in the bond market [11] - The effectiveness of the budget in achieving a balance between public service funding and economic growth remains to be seen [11]