白银去哪了？交易所库存位于近十年低位，或遭遇流动性大考

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing decline in silver inventories at major domestic exchanges raises concerns about potential liquidity issues and market volatility, reminiscent of past events in the metals market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory fell by 58.83 tons to 715.875 tons, marking the lowest level since July 2016 [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, despite a slight increase of 21.3 tons, remains at a near ten-year low [1]. - Global silver inventory distribution is highly uneven, with London silver stocks down approximately 75% from their peak in 2019, contributing to liquidity tightness in the global silver market [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The movement of silver and other metals from London to New York due to tariff concerns has created arbitrage opportunities, impacting domestic prices and trading behavior [1][2]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is considering new rules to prevent excessive positions in low inventory conditions, which could lead to price volatility [2]. - Industrial demand for silver, particularly in photovoltaic applications and electric vehicles, continues to grow, further straining existing inventories [3]. Group 3: Price Movements - Silver prices have surged over 80% year-to-date, with London spot silver reaching over $54 per ounce in October [5]. - As of November 26, silver prices in Shanghai and London showed increases of approximately 1.7%, reflecting the tight inventory situation [5]. - The potential for liquidity risks in silver trading is heightened due to its industrial applications, which differ from gold's more stable market behavior [5][6]. Group 4: Policy Responses - The LME has temporarily suspended non-USD gold trading to prevent market manipulation amid low liquidity [2]. - Domestic exchanges have adjusted margin requirements for silver futures to mitigate market volatility due to declining inventories [4]. - Recommendations for addressing liquidity risks include optimizing delivery rules, enhancing coordination with international markets, and encouraging domestic silver reserves [6].