华创证券：医药行业持续加码创新 看好中药2026年修复行情

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to reach new highs globally due to persistent human demand and unmet needs, alongside increased R&D investments by pharmaceutical companies [1] - Continuous innovation and successful outcomes are essential for pharmaceutical companies to achieve explosive revenue and stock price growth [1] Group 1: Innovative Drugs - China has seen a high-quality growth in the number of innovative therapies in development, significantly outpacing the global average, establishing itself as a key player in global innovative drug R&D [2] - Since 2021, the total overseas licensing amount for domestic new drugs has exceeded $10 billion, with ongoing growth in overseas licensing driving China's share in the global market [2] - The industry is entering an "innovation-driven" revenue era, fostering a positive dynamic between traditional pharmaceutical companies and emerging players [2] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - The industry is experiencing accelerated growth as companies reap the benefits of years of R&D, with many transitioning to innovation-driven growth phases [2] - The current period is seen as just the beginning of a harvest phase, with future performance expected to further accelerate [2] Group 3: CXO Sector - Starting in the second half of 2024, global pharmaceutical R&D demand is anticipated to recover, with leading CXO companies seeing a gradual increase in orders and revenue [2] - There is strong demand for new molecular types such as peptides, small nucleic acids, and ADCs, which is driving high prosperity in the CDMO segment [2] - As drug development becomes more challenging, the value of leading CRO companies is expected to become more pronounced [2] Group 4: API Sector - API companies primarily focus on non-U.S. exports (Europe/India), with strong current demand [3] - Leading companies are achieving positive results in expanding into CDMO businesses, leveraging their robust EHS and GMP systems [3] - Many companies are also integrating local market formulation businesses, poised to benefit from easing centralized procurement pressures [3] Group 5: Medical Devices - The high-value consumables sector is expected to return to a high growth trajectory as procurement pressures ease, with innovation driving ongoing development and value reassessment [3] - The medical equipment bidding process is recovering, indicating a turning point for the sector, with optimism for domestic equipment technology upgrades and international expansion [3] - The IVD industry is under pressure, but policy disruptions are gradually clearing, allowing leading domestic companies to increase market share [3] Group 6: Traditional Chinese Medicine - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to recover significantly, driven by improved chip structure, favorable policies, and inventory reduction [3] - The anticipated recovery sequence for sub-sectors includes hospital-based Chinese medicine, four categories of drugs, OTC common drugs, and high-value consumer Chinese medicine [3] Group 7: Medical Services - Positive macro policies are expected to restore consumer confidence, alleviating concerns about private hospitals' bad debts and payment cycles [4] Group 8: Pharmaceutical Retail - The pharmaceutical retail sector has faced ongoing pressure since Q3 2024 due to declining demand for four categories of drugs, consumer downgrading, and intensified competition [4] - Drugstores are responding by closing locations and enhancing efficiency, with expectations for recovery as high baseline effects are gradually digested [4] Group 9: Blood Products - Despite short-term performance pressures, the essential nature of blood products suggests a return to supply-demand balance [4] - The variety of products is increasing rapidly, with high-value new products expected to drive industry growth [4] Group 10: Life Sciences Services - The sector is seeing a recovery in demand, supported by deepening domestic substitution and ongoing international expansion, with quarterly revenue expected to turn positive from Q4 2024 [4] - The net profit margin for the sector has been improving, indicating sustained profitability growth [4]