供应紧张加剧 菜籽粕期货呈现震荡上行走势

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for rapeseed meal is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract currently priced at 2469.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.31% increase [1] Group 1: Inventory and Supply Data - As of week 47, the inventory of imported rapeseed meal in South China is 230,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week. The outflow was 5,000 tons, while the inflow was 2,000 tons [2] - In East China, the inventory of imported rapeseed meal stands at 226,600 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [2] - North China's inventory of imported rapeseed meal is 48,400 tons, which is an increase of 7,000 tons compared to the previous week [2] Group 2: Processing and Demand Insights - According to the Canadian Statistics Agency, Canadian oilseed processors crushed 1,027,000 tons of canola in October, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% [2] - The estimated canola crushing volume for the first three months of the 2025/26 fiscal year is 2,902,000 tons, compared to 2,885,000 tons during the same period last year [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategies - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that external canola prices have stabilized, with increases in European canola and U.S. soybeans boosting Canadian canola. However, the decline in export demand remains a concern, and alternative markets for canola exports are unlikely to emerge [3] - Everbright Futures indicates that rapeseed meal is continuing to digest inventory, with tightening supply and increased reluctance to sell from upstream producers. The market is also monitoring the arrival of Australian canola and related pricing from enterprises [3]