养殖端补栏持续低迷 鸡蛋盘面短期反转概率不高

Core Viewpoint - Egg futures are experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract rising significantly by 2.12% to 3283.00 yuan per 500 kilograms [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - As of October, the number of laying hens in production is 1.359 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% but a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, marking the highest level in nearly nine years [2] - The average age of culling hens is 492 days as of November 20, indicating an accelerated culling pace compared to previous weeks [2] Group 2: Market Prices - Current average prices for eggs in major production areas are as follows: Shandong at 6.09 yuan/kg (up 0.14 from yesterday), Hebei at 5.63 yuan/kg (up 0.02), Guangdong at 6.73 yuan/kg (unchanged), and Beijing at 6.16 yuan/kg (unchanged) [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Zhongtai Futures notes that the breeding sector is facing continuous losses, leading to a pessimistic sentiment and a faster culling pace, while the supply pressure is expected to remain high before the Spring Festival [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures highlights that since July, the number of chicks being replenished has significantly declined, which will lead to a decrease in new production starting around December [3] - The medium-term outlook for the egg industry suggests a reduction in new production numbers while the number of older hens being culled remains high, indicating a gradual alleviation of supply pressure [3]