美联储12月降息预期升温 铂期货价格有望稳步抬升

Core Viewpoint - Platinum futures experienced a rapid increase on their first trading day, reaching a peak of 457.15 yuan, with a closing price of 432.85 yuan, marking a 6.88% rise [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Guosen Futures anticipates that domestic platinum and palladium futures will likely show a trend of oscillating upward [1] - Hongyuan Futures suggests that the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December may lead to a strong oscillation in platinum prices [1] - China International Futures projects a steady increase in platinum prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side challenges include high mining costs, unstable electricity supply, and aging production equipment, which disrupt platinum production, while the recovery of platinum production is slow [1] - On the demand side, stricter emissions standards are expected to increase the demand for platinum in traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles, alongside optimistic demand in hydrogen production, fiberglass, and jewelry investment sectors [1] - By 2025-2026, global platinum supply and demand are expected to tighten, influenced by the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Group 3: Long-term Price Outlook - China International Futures indicates a long-term price divergence between platinum and palladium, with platinum expected to strengthen while palladium faces pressure [2] - A projected 22-ton shortage in platinum by 2025, coupled with supportive demand from the automotive sector and jewelry, is expected to bolster platinum prices [2] - Palladium's reliance on gasoline vehicle catalysts is anticipated to be negatively impacted by the penetration of electric vehicles, leading to a surplus by 2026 [2]