海外降息周期仍将持续 沪银期货盘面表现偏强

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver futures on the Shanghai market showed strong performance, with the main contract reaching 12,371.00 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase of 2.08% [1] Group 2 - As of November 26, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total of 361,700 long positions and 269,600 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.34. The net position decreased by 234 contracts compared to the previous day [2] - On November 25, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported a trading volume of 159,339 contracts for silver futures, an increase of 64,046 contracts from the previous trading day. The open interest decreased by 3,943 contracts to 144,999 [2] - Recent dovish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have maintained market expectations for a rate cut in December above 80%. In geopolitical news, Russia indicated that a U.S. envoy would visit Moscow next week, but negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict are still considered premature [2] Group 3 - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the U.S. initial jobless claims recorded 216,000, the lowest since April 12, 2025, indicating economic resilience. Gold is experiencing fluctuations while silver remains relatively strong. However, uncertainties regarding rate cuts and geopolitical situations continue to affect precious metals [3] - Minmetals Futures noted that expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy have significantly rebounded following key speeches from Fed officials. The overseas rate cut cycle is expected to continue, with further developments anticipated in December. The last Fed meeting of the year is scheduled for December 10, where the economic outlook report will be released [3] - Current strategies for precious metals suggest buying on dips, with the Shanghai gold main contract expected to operate within a range of 917-967 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract within a range of 11,661-13,000 yuan per kilogram [3]