Crude Prices Undercut by Signs of Progress to End the Russian-Ukrainian War

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 5-week lows due to expectations of increased global oil supplies following a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war and weaker-than-expected US economic data [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - January WTI crude oil closed down -0.89 (-1.51%) and January RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0235 (-1.29%) [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to expectations that lifting restrictions on Russian energy exports will boost global oil supplies [1][2] - A weaker US dollar limited losses in crude oil prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month in September, below the expected +0.4% [3] - ADP reported a decline in US private payrolls by an average of -13,500 per week for the four weeks ending November 8 [3] - The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index fell -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than the expected 93.3 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Reduced crude exports from Russia are supporting oil prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of November, the lowest in over 3 years [4] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has knocked out 13% to 20% of Russia's refining capacity, limiting production by up to 1.1 million bpd [4] - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have further curtailed Russian oil exports [4] Group 4: Supply Dynamics - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers rose by +9.7% week-over-week to 114.31 million barrels, the highest level in 2.25 years [5] - Ongoing geopolitical risks related to Russia and potential US military actions against Venezuela are providing underlying support for oil prices [5]