半年跌幅超11%！甲醇市场何时能稳？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market has been under pressure since the second half of the year, with prices dropping significantly due to increased supply and decreased demand, but there are signs of potential stabilization as winter approaches and inventory levels decrease [1][2]. Cost Support - In 2024, China's methanol industry is expected to see both production and consumption increase, but a supply-demand mismatch is anticipated to lead to lower prices in the second half of 2025. The dominant production method is coal-based methanol, accounting for 78.3% of total production, with new gasification technologies improving efficiency [2]. - A decline in coal prices in 2024 is easing cost pressures for coal-based methanol producers, while rising coal and natural gas prices in winter 2025 may create cost challenges, providing a mixed outlook for pricing stability [2]. Supply Reduction and Demand Increase - The methanol industry has seen steady capacity growth, with annual production expected to exceed 112 million tons in 2024 and an additional 5 million tons projected for 2025, marking a growth rate of over 4.4%. However, demand recovery has not met expectations, leading to continued market weakness [3]. - A significant shift occurred in late November, with total domestic methanol supply at 2.303 million tons and demand at 2.3779 million tons, indicating a reversal in supply-demand dynamics. Anticipated reductions in imports due to seasonal factors and rising costs are expected to support domestic production cuts [3]. Inventory Decline - As of November 22, domestic methanol inventory stood at 358,700 tons, showing a slight decline. Most regions, except for the Southwest, are experiencing inventory reductions, particularly in the Northwest due to strong demand for external procurement and active sales strategies [4]. - High import levels in October and November have contributed to elevated port inventories, but recent trends indicate a significant reduction in port stocks, particularly in East China, which may positively influence future market stability [4].